国际前沿 | 《政治学年鉴》2020年刊
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《政治学年鉴》2020年总第23卷文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
《政治学年鉴》(Annual Review of Political Science) 创刊于1998年，刊文覆盖政治学主要研究领域，包括政治理论与哲学、国际关系、政治经济、政治行为、美国与比较政治、公共管理与政策以及政治学方法研究。
PART 2
期刊目录
Understanding Multilateral Institutions in Easy and Hard Times
在顺境和逆境中理解多边机构
Beyond War and Contracts: The Medieval and Religious Roots of the European State
战争和契约之外：欧洲国家的中世纪和宗教性根源
Madison's Constitution Under Stress: A Developmental Analysis of Political Polarization
压力下的麦迪逊宪法：对政治两极化的发展性分析
Democratic Stability: A Long View
民主稳定性：长远的考虑
Political Misinformation
政治性误传
The Political Theory of Parties and Partisanship: Catching Up
政党与党派的政治理论：追赶
Climate Change and Work: Politics and Power
气候变化与工作：政治与权力
Studying Leaders and Elites: The Personal Biography Approach
研究领袖与精英：个人传记路径
Understanding the Role of Racism in Contemporary US Public Opinion
理解种族主义在当代美国公众舆论中的作用
Partisan Gerrymandering and Political Science
党派选区划分和政治科学
Economic Geography, Politics, and Policy
经济地理、政治和政策
Transnational Actors and Transnational Governance in Global Environmental Politics
全球环境政治中的跨国行为体和跨国治理
The Fluidity of Racial Classifications
种族分类的流动性
Economic Development and Democracy: Predispositions and Triggers
经济发展与民主制度：倾向性和触发因素
Institutional Bargaining for Democratic Theorists (or How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Haggling)
民主理论家的制度性交涉谈判（我们是如何学会停止担忧并爱上讨价还价）
Clientelism's Red Herrings: Dead Ends and New Directions in the Study of Nonprogrammatic Politics
侍从主义的红鲱鱼: 非计划性政治研究的僵局与新方向
The Changing Cleavage Politics of Western Europe
西欧不断变化的分歧政治
Authoritarian-Led Democratization
威权主导的民主化
Survey Experiments in International Political Economy: What We (Don't) Know About the Backlash Against Globalization
国际政治经济学的调查实验：我们所（不）了解的对全球化的强烈抵制
How International Actors Help Enforce Domestic Deals
国际行为体如何帮助执行国内协议
Do Emerging Military Technologies Matter for International Politics?
新兴军事技术对国际政治有影响吗？
Resilience to Online Censorship
对网络审查的韧性
Identity Politics and Populism in Europe
欧洲的身份政治与民粹主义
Ethnic Diversity and Social Trust: A Narrative and Meta-Analytical Review
种族多样性与社会信任：叙事与元分析回顾
PART 3
精选译文
01 在顺境和逆境中理解多边机构
【题目】
Understanding Multilateral Institutions in Easy and Hard Times
【作者】
Robert O. Keohane
【摘要】
在我的学术著作中，我试图去理解国际政治中制度化的多边合作，以及这种合作的背景：广泛的经济依存或者全球化。经济依存带来的政治后果是什么？面临全球化的国家们，它们仅能对多边机构所指定的政策施加间接且集体式的影响，在什么条件下愿意与多边组织分享权力？我搭建了解释性框架和一些理论来回答这些问题。在其他著作中，我帮助制定了定性研究的设计规范，并探索关于机构问责制和合法性的一些规范性问题。我关于多边机构的研究是基于一个多边合作不断增加的时代。当今资本主义民主制度下的不平等、金融危机和以国家主义形式出现的民粹主义，都挑战了我之前的著作。现在，当气候变化成为了存在危机，我正在寻求理解气候变化下的国际政治和比较政治。
In my scholarly work, I have sought to understand institutionalized multilateral cooperation in world politics, and the context of such cooperation: extensive economic interdependence, or globalization. What are the political implications of economic interdependence? Under what conditions are states facing globalization willing to share their authority with multilateral organizations over whose policies they exert only indirect and collective influence? I have developed interpretive frameworks and some theory to address these issues. In other work, I have helped to develop precepts for qualitative research design, and I have explored some normative issues associated with institutional accountability and legitimacy. My work on multilateral institutions, which was done in a period of increasing multilateral cooperation, is challenged by increasing inequality in capitalist democracies, financial crisis, and nationalist forms of populism. I am now seeking to understand the international and comparative politics of climate change, which I regard as an existential crisis.
02 战争和契约之外：欧洲国家的中世纪和宗教性根源
【题目】
Beyond War and Contracts: The Medieval and Religious Roots of the European State
【作者】
Anna Grzymala-Busse
【摘要】
国家从何而来？两个权威的回答是：近代早期的国际战争；统治者与被统治者之间的契约。新的研究将欧洲国家的历史起源推至中世纪，并关注其内部机构，例如议会、大学、法律、继承规则和城市。然而，领土分裂的原因、国家行政机构在结构上的相似性以及国家的政策重点等问题仍然悬而未决。一个回答是在国家形成过程中，强大但常被忽视的力量：中世纪的教会。它与主权模式竞争，并为法院管理、法律和人力资本的形成提供了创新的模式。来自教会的影响有助于解释为什么中世纪的领土分割至今仍然存在，为什么皇家法院采用类似的行政解决方案，以及为什么世俗国家仍然关注道德和社会纪律。
Where does the state come from? Two canonical answers have been inter-state wars and contracts between rulers and the ruled in the early modern period. New scholarship has pushed back the historical origins of the European state to the Middle Ages, and focused on domestic institutions such as parliaments, universities, the law, inheritance rules, and cities. It has left open questions of the causes of territorial fragmentation, the structural similarities in state administrations, and the policy preoccupations of the state. One answer is a powerful but neglected force in state formation: the medieval Church, which served as a rival for sovereignty, and a template for institutional innovations in court administrations, the law, and the formation of human capital. Church influence further helps to explain why territorial fragmentation in the Middle Ages persisted, why royal courts adopted similar administrative solutions, and why secular states remain concerned with morality and social discipline.
03 压力下的麦迪逊宪法：对政治两极化的发展性分析
【题目】
Madison’s Constitution Under Stress: A Developmental Analysis of Political Polarization
【作者】
Paul Pierson
Eric Schickler
【摘要】
我们从“发展性”的视角，来理解为什么美国的两极分化没有自我纠正，而是继续日益加剧。在特定条件下，初期的极化增加可能会改变中观环境，例如政党，媒体结构和利益集团配置等。这些转变反过来又会影响政治的其他方面，导致两极分化进一步加剧。这种分析有四个重要的好处：（a）它使我们关注美国政体的中观制度环境；（b）它阐明了传统上限制两极分化程度和持续时间的政体特征，以及其在当代影响减弱的原因；（c）它有助于我们分析两极化中的不对称或特定于政党的因素；（d）它提供了一个分析基础，将美国政治与比较政治中关于民主回潮的内容联系了起来。
We present a “developmental” approach to understanding why rising polarization in the United States has not been self-correcting but instead continues to intensify. Under specified conditions, initial increases in polarization may change the meso-environment, including such features as state parties, the structure of media, and the configuration of interest groups. These shifts can in turn influence other aspects of politics, leading to a further intensification of polarization. This analysis has four important benefits: (a) It directs our attention to the meso-institutional environment of the American polity; (b) it clarifies the features of the polity that have traditionally limited the extent and duration of polarization, and the reasons why their contemporary impact may be attenuated; (c) it helps us analyze asymmetrical, or party- specific, aspects of polarization; and (d) it provides an analytic foundation that connects discussions of American politics to the comparative politics literature on democratic backsliding.
04 民主稳定性：长远的考虑
【题目】
Democratic Stability: A Long View
【作者】
Federica Carugati
【摘要】
民主稳定性的根源是什么？三次现代化浪潮表明，稳定取决于经济增长、强硬政权和自由（主义）机构。但是，除了自由主义，还有什么可以确保民主稳定性吗？这个问题与对自由民主没有希望或兴趣的发展中国家息息相关。但这个问题也与那些，在二十世纪自由秩序被侵蚀下的发达国家日益相关。本文通过回顾过去两千多年的证据，重新审视民主稳定性。特别要注意的是古雅典，它突出了规范与设计合理的机构保持一致的重要性。雅典的案例表明，通常与现代自由民主联系在一起的好处，不一定依赖于既定价值观，也不会在制度上有独特的表现。
What are the sources of democratic stability? The evidence from three modern waves suggests that stability rests on economic growth, strong states, and liberal institutions. But can we secure democratic stability beyond liberalism? This question is relevant to those developing countries that have little hope, and perhaps little interest in liberal democracy. But it is also increasingly relevant to those developed nations where the achievements of the twentieth-century liberal order are being eroded. This article takes a fresh look at democratic stability by reviewing the evidence from the last two and a half millennia. Particular attention is devoted to the case of ancient Athens, which highlights the importance of alignment between shared norms and appropriately designed institutions. Athens’ case suggests that goods that we usually associate with modern liberal democracy do not necessarily rely on a given set of values and do not have a unique institutional manifestation.
05 政治性误传
【题目】
Foreign Policy Dilemmas and Opportunities for a New Administration: An Opinion Piece
【作者】
Jennifer Jerit
Yangzi Zhao
【摘要】
当人们自信地相信了错误的事实时，就会出现误传。这个最初由 Kuklinski及其同事在2000年提出的问题，一直困扰着政治体系，难以纠正。在这篇评论中，我们评估了美国有关政治误传的实证文献，并研究了自该早期研究发表以来学者们的成果。我们的结论是，关于该主题的研究发展得并不平衡。学者们详述了政治性误传的心理学渊源，并富有成果。相比之下，尽管有大量有关如何纠正误传的研究，但该文献未能给出连贯的建议。最后，新的研究探寻了人们呈现出来的对于谋实事的信念，究竟是真实的，还是一种盲目拥护。总体而言，有关误传的研究阐明了代议制民主的内生难题。
Misinformation occurs when people hold incorrect factual beliefs and do so confidently. The problem, first conceptualized by Kuklinski and colleagues in 2000, plagues political systems and is exceedingly difficult to correct. In this review, we assess the empirical literature on political misinformation in the United States and consider what scholars have learned since the publication of that early study. We conclude that research on this topic has developed unevenly. Over time, scholars have elaborated on the psychological origins of political misinformation, and this work has cumulated in a productive way. By contrast, although there is an extensive body of research on how to correct misinformation, this literature is less coherent in its recommendations. Finally, a nascent line of research asks whether people’s reports of their factual beliefs are genuine or are instead a form of partisan cheerleading. Overall, scholarly research on political misinformation illustrates the many challenges inherent in representative democracy.
06 政党与党派的政治理论：追赶
【题目】
The Political Theory of Parties and Partisanship: Catching Up
【作者】
Russell Muirhead
Nancy L. Rosenblum
【摘要】
尽管政党对现代民主很重要，但近期政党在规范性民主理论中常常被边缘化，社会运动、公民协会、审议试验、地方政府以及民众参与等议题中也没有对政党的讨论。然而，在过去的15年里，民主理论中直接针对政党和党派的新兴研究，这也是本文的主要关注。我们从三个方面为政党做规范性辩护：一是强调政党在政治辩护中，作为公共理性代理人的特殊角色；二是强调政党如何帮助审议；三是强调党派承诺如何监管政治竞争和和平轮换。在第三点中，我们对政党的宪法地位和禁止政党的原因进行了概述。我们进而思考党派与公民身份的关系，并在第四部分中，讨论党派关系的伦理。政党和党派关系虽然紧密相连，但仍需分开讨论：若党派成员是实现党派价值的必要条件，则反之亦然，且也必须要党派来实现党派价值。
Despite their centrality to modern democracy, until recently political parties were relegated to the margins of normative democratic theory, taking a back seat to social movements, civil society associations, deliberative experiments, spaces for local participatory government, and direct popular participation. Yet, in the past 15 years, a burgeoning literature has emerged in democratic theory focused directly on parties and partisanship; that is our focus in this review. We locate three main normative defenses of parties: one centered in the special role parties can play in political justification as agents of public reason, a second that looks to the way parties contribute to deliberation, and a third that focuses on the partisan commitment to regulated political rivalry and peaceful rotation in office. In this last connection, we survey work on the constitutional status of parties and reasons for banning parties. We then consider the relation of partisanship to citizenship, and in a fourth section we turn to the ethics of partisanship. Parties and partisanship are interwoven but separable: If partisans are necessary to realize the value of parties, the reverse holds as well, and parties are necessary to realize the value of partisanship.
07 气候变化与工作：政治与权力
【题目】
Climate Change and Work: Politics and Power
【作者】
Natasha N. Iskander
Nichola Lowe
【摘要】
气候变暖是我们时代面临的巨大挑战。不仅因为它会从根本上改变我们的自然环境，更因为它将重新定义工作和生计。本文理解性阐释了气候变化所带来的压力将如何给工作、生产和技术带来政治性影响。我们围绕以下三个主题：商品化以及揭露成本和资源的过程、知识的产生和对未来的描述中所包含的政治、合理的过渡以及如何公平分配成本和变化。这些主题都涉及了，市场的支配地位（无论是在言论上还是在政策上）是如何掩盖了经济生产和社会交流中的物质性。但是，这三个主题也促使我们思考新的政治和体制行为，以应对缓解气候变化和维护我们生计的双重挑战。
Climate warming is the fundamental challenge of our time, not only because it will radically transform our natural environment but also because it will redefine jobs and livelihoods. This article builds an interpretive bridge for understanding the political consequences of how climate change pressures will affect work, production, and technology. We organize this review along three themes: commodification and the processes through which costs and resources are made visible; the production of knowledge and the politics of representing the future; and just transitions and how to distribute the costs and the opportunities of change equitably. These themes all address the ways that the dominance of the market—both in rhetoric and in policy—eclipses the materiality of economic production and social exchange. Together, however, the three themes also allow us to contemplate new political and institutional actions for tackling the twinned challenges of mitigating climate change and safeguarding our livelihoods.
08 研究领袖与精英：个人传记路径
【题目】
Studying Leaders and Elites: The Personal Biography Approach
【作者】
Daniel Krcmaric
Stephen C. Nelson
Andrew Roberts
【摘要】
过去二十年中，个体领导人和精英的角色重视获得了重视。本文对关于传记性因素对行为的影响的文献进行了概述。我们将这些文献称为一种从个人传记理解政治领导力的角度。我们首先列出了传记性特征可能影响领导者行为的四种机制。然后，根据他们的社会经历（如教育、兵役和以前的职业）和不可控特征（如性别、种族和种族）将其分组，并讨论我们的主要发现。我们也讨论了内生性和选择效应等问题，（这些问题）给这种研究风格所带来的方法论上的挑战。最后，我们对文献进行评估，并为未来传记性研究提出建议。
The last two decades have seen a revival in work that takes the role of individual leaders and elites seriously. This article surveys new research that explores how biographical factors influence their behavior. We call this literature the personal biography approach to political leadership. Our survey first lays out four mechanisms through which biographical characteristics might affect leader behavior. We then discuss the main findings, grouping them according to socializing experiences (e.g., education, military service, and prior occupation) and ascriptive traits (e.g., gender, race, and ethnicity). We also consider the methodological problems, especially endogeneity and selection effects, that pose challenges to this style of research. We conclude with an assessment of gaps in the literature and provide suggestions for future work in the biographical vein.
09 理解种族主义在当代美国公众舆论中的作用
【题目】
Understanding the Role of Racism in Contemporary US Public Opinion
【作者】
Katherine Cramer
【摘要】
如今，种族主义不可避免地成为了美国舆论的要素。当很多学者都在对衡量和理解种族主义的一般方式进行评估时，我们有理由去重新理解种族怨恨，并用其衡量公众对政治不平等的原因的看法。我们也并不囿于将种族主义视为一种态度，而是将其理解成一种观点。此外，我们也关注精英在创造和延续种族主义的方面，对人们对待公共事务的方式所发挥的作用。对种族主义的研究与广泛的公众讨论相辅相成：（它们都）意识到种族主义与美国文化和政治生活交织在一起的复杂和基本方式。
In the contemporary context, it is inescapable that racism is a factor in US public opinion. When scholars take stock of the way we typically measure and conceptualize racism, we find reason to reconceptualize the racial resentment scale as a measure of perceptions of the reasons for political inequality. We also see reason to move beyond thinking of racism as an attitude, toward conceptualizing it as a perspective. In addition, we see reason to pay closer attention to the role of elites in creating and perpetuating a role for racism in the way people think about public affairs. The study of racism is evolving in parallel with the broader public discussion: toward a recognition of the complex and fundamental ways it is woven into US culture and political life.
10 党派选区划分和政治科学
【题目】
Partisan Gerrymandering and Political Science
【作者】
Eric McGhee
【摘要】
近年来，公众对党派游说这一话题的兴趣激增，包括有力改革和多个备受瞩目的案件。政治学家在相关讨论中发挥了重要作用，并少见地达到了很高的公众参与度。然而，这个面向公众的时期，在某种程度上掩盖了一些本学科未来研究的可能性。笔者回顾了政治科学这一领域的历史，重新划分并描述了新兴趣是如何影响了相关研究。法律的目标与政治科学的目标不同，因此，专注于前者的研究通常会错过推进后者的机会。我阐释了二者的差异，并建议重新定义游党派游说，使其可以对更传统的科学问题有所帮助。最后，我思考了以这种方式重构讨论之后，未来的研究问题会是什么。
Recent years have seen a tremendous surge of public interest in partisan gerrymandering, including robust reform efforts and multiple high-profile court cases. Political scientists have played an important role in this debate, reaching an unusually high level of public engagement. Yet this public-facing period has to some extent obscured promising avenues for future research within the discipline. I review the history of political science and redistricting and describe how research on this topic has been shaped by the newfound interest. The goals of the law differ from those of political science, so research that focuses squarely on the former often misses opportunities to advance the latter. I lay out the contours of this difference and then suggest reframing the existing metrics of partisan gerrymandering to make them useful for more traditionally scientific questions. Finally, I offer some ideas about what those future questions might look like when reframed in this way.
11 经济地理、政治和政策
【题目】
Economic Geography, Politics, and Policy
【作者】
Stephanie J. Rickard
【摘要】
全球化降低了国家间距离的重要性。尽管如此，在各国内部，地理因素比以往都要重要。经济活动——包括生产和就业——在各国内部空间分布不均，因此全球化对不同地区会造成不同影响。一些地区受益于国际经济一体化，而另一些则遭受损失。因此，经济地理塑造了公民对全球化经历。经济地理也影响着政府对全球化以及经济冲击的回应。因此，经济地理值得政治学家的关注。通过研究经济地理，研究者将会找到既有理论性辩论的新方向，并且可以更好洞见近期的形式发展，如对全球化日益强烈的反对。研究经济地理学的挑战包括因果复杂性以及度量问题。
Globalization has reduced the importance of distance between countries. Yet, within countries, geography matters now more than ever. Economic activities, including production and employment, occur unevenly across space within countries, and globalization consequently impacts various regions differently. Some areas benefit from international economic integration while others lose, and as a result, economic geography shapes citizens’ experience of globalization. Economic geography also influences governments’ responses to globalization and economic shocks. Economic geography consequently merits the attention of political scientists. By examining economic geography, researchers will find new traction on long-standing theoretical debates and valuable insights on recent developments, including the growing backlash against globalization. The challenges of studying economic geography include causal complexity and measurement issues.
12 全球环境政治中的跨国行为体和跨国治理
【题目】
Transnational Actors and Transnational Governance in Global Environmental Politics
【作者】
Thomas Hale
【摘要】
如今，跨国行为体和跨国治理，与政府间外交和机构，一并构成了全球环境政治的核心。本文探讨了跨国主义兴起的方式和条件，及其对世界政治的影响：跨国行为体和治理对政治结果的影响、它们与国家和政府间机构的关系、关于其合法性和责任性的规范性问题。跨国行为者和机构在环境政治中的关键作用，可以帮助探索更广泛的、有关世界政治的全球治理发展问题。随着全球环境挑战持续加剧并影响其他政治活动，了解这些动态将越来越重要。
Transnational actors and transnational governance now form core elements of global environmental politics alongside intergovernmental diplomacy and institutions. This article explores how and under what conditions this transnationalism has arisen, as well as its implications for world politics. It considers what effects transnational actors and governance have had on political outcomes, their relation to states and intergovernmental institutions, and normative questions around their legitimacy and accountability. The critical role of transnational actors and institutions in environmental politics has made the field a laboratory for broader questions concerning the evolution of global governance in world politics more generally. As global environmental challenges continue to magnify and affect other spheres of political activity, understanding these dynamics will become increasingly important.
13 种族分类的流动性
【题目】
The Fluidity of Racial Classifications
【作者】
Lauren Davenport
【摘要】
在这篇文章中，我回顾了关于种族流动性的文献，即种族是灵活且不固定的概念。我追溯了美国和拉丁美洲这两个地区种族分类和边界的不断演变。这两个地区有着共同的欧洲殖民、奴隶制和高度种族混合的历史，但却有着非常不同的种族观念。传统上，对美国的许多群体来说，种族被视为不可改变并是由祖先决定的。相反，拉丁美洲部分地区则没有严格的分类规则，而是接受种族混合。然而，最近的研究表明，美国的种族可以随着时间和环境的变化而变化，特别是对于那些社会定义较为模糊的人口。而在拉丁美洲的种族界限正变得更加严格。我认为，种族流动性重新定义了我们对种族身份的理解，并为今后的政治学研究提出了将不同学科和方法论联系起来的研究方向。
In this article, I review the social science literature on racial fluidity, the idea that race is flexible and impermanent. I trace the ongoing evolution of racial classifications and boundaries in the United States and Latin America, two regions that share a history of European colonization, slavery, and high levels of race mixing but that have espoused very different racial ideologies. Traditionally, for many groups in the United States, race was seen as unchangeable and determined by ancestry; in contrast, parts of Latin America have lacked strict classification rules and embraced race mixing. However,
recent research has shown that race in the United States can change across time and context, particularly for populations socially defined as more ambiguous, while some Latin American racial boundaries are becoming more stringent. I argue that the fluidity of race has redefined our understanding of racial identities, and propose several directions for future political science scholarship that bridges disciplines and methodological approaches.
14 经济发展与民主制度：倾向性和触发因素
【题目】
Economic Development and Democracy: Predispositions and Triggers
【作者】
Daniel Treisman
【摘要】
学者们对经济发展与民主间的关系仍存在分歧。我回顾了这一争论的历史，并总结了能从现有数据中观察到的模式。我发现在中期内（10-20年），较高的收入同民主化以及民主存活之间存在着强烈一致的关系，但在短期则不一定。基于近期几项研究，我简要描述了一个新的可以解释这种滞后性的条件现代化理论。其中重点是发展对民主的影响是由扰乱性事件引起的，例如经济危机、军事战败、或者最普遍的领导人更迭。政治结果既取决于发展水平，也取决于中等收入的公民如何协调。专制国家领袖的更迭和收入与民主化之间短暂的牢固联系有关，而这反过来又与前两次民主化浪潮相吻合。
Scholars continue to disagree about the relationship between economic development
and democracy. I review the history of the debate and summarize patterns visible in data available today. I find a strong and consistent relationship between higher income and both democratization and democratic survival in the medium term (10–20 years), but not necessarily in shorter time windows. Building on several recent studies, I sketch out a new conditional modernization theory, which can account for such lags. The key idea is that the effect of development on democracy is triggered by disruptive events such as economic crises, military defeats, or—most generally—leader change. Political outcomes depend on both the development level and, at intermediate income ranges, how citizens coordinate. Waves of leader turnover in autocracies correlate with temporarily stronger links between income and democratization, which, in turn, coincide with the first two waves of democracy.
15 民主理论家的制度性交涉谈判（我们是如何学会停止担忧并爱上讨价还价）
【题目】
Institutional Bargaining for Democratic Theorists (or How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Haggling)
【作者】
Jack Knight
Melissa Schwartzberg
【摘要】
当代政治学认为交涉谈判是民主决策的核心机制，但政治理论家通常怀疑，允许不平等权力和威胁的过程是否能产生合法的结果。在这篇综述中，我们从多元主义和实证主义政治理论的角度，追溯制度性交涉谈判理论的发展。然后，我们转向John Rawls和Jürgen Habermas的有影响力的著作中对交涉谈判的研究。他们对交涉谈判的矛盾态度引起了对谈判和妥协的价值的新关注，但这些文献在将协商民主正当化的理想，和提供可信的政治决策模式的愿望之间构成了一个不稳定的中间点。我们不主张改变思维方式或动机，而是认为公平的交涉谈判过程需要体制改革，以及以维护公平决策为核心的正当性框架。
Contemporary political science takes bargaining to be the central mechanism of democratic decision making, though political theorists typically doubt that processes that permit the exercise of unequal power and the use of threats can yield legitimate outcomes. In this review, we trace the development of theories of institutional bargaining from the standpoint of pluralism and positive political theory before turning to the treatment of bargaining in the influential work of John Rawls and Jürgen Habermas. Their ambivalence about bargaining gave rise to a new focus on the value of negotiation and compromise but this literature constitutes an unstable
midpoint between the justificatory ambitions of deliberative democracy and the desire to provide plausible models of political decision making. Instead of advocating changes in mindset or motivation, we argue that a fair bargaining process requires institutional reform, as well as a justificatory framework centered on the preservation of egalitarian decision making.
16 侍从主义的红鲱鱼: 非计划性政治研究的僵局与新方向
【题目】
Clientelism’s Red Herrings: Dead Ends and New Directions in the Study of Nonprogrammatic Politics
【作者】
Allen Hicken
Noah L. Nathan
【摘要】
对侍从主义的研究往往从一个共同难题开始：如果选民可以违背对政客的承诺，侍从主义怎么会成为一种可行的选举策略？标准解决方案提出，政客同选民通过监督和执行来解决承诺问题。但令人吃惊的是，在最近的研究中，几乎没有关于个体层面的监督和执行的证据。即使政客们意识到了承诺问题无法完全被解决，现在许多研究还是记录了侍从主义的使用。整体来看，最近的研究表明，注重解决承诺问题只是在转移视线。相反，越来越清楚的是，侍从主义不需要监督；当政客决定他们的选举呼吁时，承诺也并不具有约束力。在最近研究进展的推动下，新的难题值得在未来的研究中得到更多关注。
Research on clientelism often starts from a shared puzzle: How can clientelism be a viable electoral strategy if voters can renege on their commitments to politicians? The standard solution proposed is that politicians resolve this commitment problem with voters through monitoring and enforcement. But there has been startlingly little evidence of individual-level monitoring and enforcement in the recent literature, and many studies now document the use of clientelism even where politicians are aware that the commitment problem remains completely intractable. When read together, recent studies suggest that the focus on resolving the commitment problem is a red herring. Instead, it is increasingly clear that clientelism does not need to be monitored and that the commitment problem does not bind as politicians choose their electoral appeals. New puzzles, motivated by advances in the recent literature, deserve comparatively more attention in future research.
17 西欧不断变化的分歧政治
【题目】
The Changing Cleavage Politics of Western Europe
【作者】
Robert Ford
Will Jennings
【摘要】
西欧政治的轮廓是如何变化的？这些变化在多大程度上反映了欧洲政体深层次的社会与经济结构的变化？在这篇文章中，我们从经典文献的见解中反思分歧如何构建了政党体系，思考新的政党和意识形态的出现和持续如何导致政党竞争分界线的变化和政党体系的分裂。虽然所谓欧洲选举政治的第二维度得到了越来越多的关注，但我们认为，对于推动这一转变的结构性变化的关注仍相对有限。我们指出一些可能在西欧民主制度中产生新分歧的社会人口发展状况：高等教育的扩张、大规模移民和选民的种族多样性的不断增加、社会老龄化和代沟的加剧、以及繁荣的全球化大城市与衰落的内陆地区之间人口的地理隔离的加剧。
How are the contours of Western European politics shifting? To what extent do these shifts reflect changes in the underlying social and economic structure of European polities? In this article, we reflect on insights from the classic literature on how cleavages structure party systems and consider how the emergence and persistence of new parties and new ideological conflicts are leading to both shifts of dividing lines of party competition and the fragmentation of party systems. While increasing attention has been given to the so-called second dimension of European electoral politics, we highlight the relatively limited focus on structural changes that are helping to drive this transformation. We identify some socio-demographic developments that are potentially generating new cleavages in Western European democracies: the expansion of higher education; mass migration and the growing ethnic diversity of electorates; the aging of societies and sharpening of generational divides; and increased geographical segregation of populations between prospering, globalized major cities and declining hinterlands.
18 威权主导的民主化
【题目】
Authoritarian-Led Democratization
【作者】
Rachel Beatty Riedl
Dan Slater
Joseph Wong
Daniel Ziblatt
【摘要】
当专制政体面临很少选择或很小风险时，它们更有可能实现民主化。在某些情况下，专制政体掌权者的民主化风险非常低，以至于结束专制主义可能根本不意味着失去权力。本文提出了一个统一的理论，即在现任者风险相对较低的条件下，专制主义主导的民主化。我们认为，专制主义掌权者的政党实力是专制主义政体主导民主化的最关键因素。当掌权者的政党实力足以让在任的专制主义政客有很大的赢得选举的信心时，非民主政体就会进行可逆性的民主实验，最终形成稳定、繁荣的民主政体。欧洲第一次民主化浪潮以及近来台湾地区和加纳的民主化转型表明，在世界和现代历史范围内，政党力量支持了专制主义领导的民主化。
Authoritarian regimes become more likely to democratize when they face little choice or little risk. In some cases, the risk of democratization to authoritarian incumbents is so low that ending authoritarianism might not mean exiting power at all. This article develops a unified theory of authoritarian-led democratization under conditions of relatively low incumbent risk. We argue that the party strength of the authoritarian incumbent is the most pivotal factor in authoritarian-led democratization. When incumbent party strength has been substantial enough to give incumbent authoritarian politicians significant electoral victory confidence, nondemocratic regimes have pursued reversible democratic experiments that eventually culminated in stable, thriving democracies. Evidence from Europe’s first wave of democratization and more recent democratic transitions in Taiwan and Ghana illustrate how party strength has underpinned authoritarian-led democratization across the world and across modern history.
19 国际政治经济学的调查实验：我们所（不）了解的对全球化的强烈抵制
【题目】
Survey Experiments in International Political Economy: What We (Don’t) Know About the Backlash Against Globalization
【作者】
Megumi Naoi
【摘要】
本文回顾了国际政治经济学（IPE）通过调查实验所积累的证据，并讨论了调查实验在解释反全球化的优势和不足。我首先回顾了IPE研究中最常用的调查实验设计——“全球化即态度？"——所取得的进步。在该设计中，研究者们随机分配有关全球化不同特征的信息，并征求受访者对保护主义的态度。接着我讨论了该设计在解释反全球化兴起的关键问题时存在的三个不足：(a)使用粗略的信息处理方法，设法使（反全球化）与经济自利假说对立起来；(b)将贫困过度归因于全球化；(c)忽视了国家间和国家内部（对于全球化）混杂的有回旋余地的看法（译者注：此处建议理解为“国家间和国家内部对于全球化具有多样化的看法，而这一点被忽略了”）。文章提出了研究这些问题的不同设计和策略。来自调查实验的证据表明，我们今天看到的反全球化大多深根于国内政治。
This article reviews the cumulation of evidence from survey experiments in the field of international political economy (IPE) and discusses their strengths and weaknesses in explaining the backlash against globalization. I first review the advancements made by the most commonly used survey experiment design in IPE, namely the Globalization-as-Treatment design, in which scholars randomly assign information about different features of globalization and solicit respondents’ attitudes toward protectionism. Then I discuss three issues with this design in addressing key puzzles in the emergence of globalization backlash: (a) using a coarse informational treatment that stacks the deck against the economic self-interest hypothesis; (b) overattributing globalization as a source of hardship; and (c) neglecting heterogeneous room-to-maneuver beliefs across and within countries. The article suggests alternative designs and strategies to study these questions. Evidence from survey experiments suggests that much of the globalization backlash we witness today is deeply rooted in domestic politics.
20 国际行为体如何帮助执行国内协议
【题目】
How International Actors Help Enforce Domestic Deals
【作者】
Ala M. Matanock
【摘要】
国际行为体有时会试图帮助实现和平、民主和人权。关于国际行为体如何帮助执行现任政府与其国内反对者之间的政治协议的研究越来越多。这些研究表明，反对派团体很难相信现任政府会遵守他们之间达成的政治协议，因为现任政府可以利用他们对国家机构的熟悉，以及在执行协议过程中对权力的不对等控制，保留比（协议）商定的更多的权力来违反条款。然而，国际行为体可以通过监控机制（通常关注选举活动）和以遵守规定为条件的激励措施来克服这些“逆转问题”。逆转问题以及国际行为体的强制执行作为一种解决方案，在各个问题领域都很常见—当国内行为体尝试结束国内冲突，公开选举，以及减少镇压时就会出现。但这些领域的研究基本上仍是分离的。本文建议将这些问题领域统一起来，并(重新)审查这一解决方案最有效的条件，从而推进这一研究议程。
International actors at times seek to help bring peace, democracy, and human rights. Studies of how international actors help enforce political bargains between incumbent governments and their domestic opponents are proliferating. They show that opposition groups have trouble trusting incumbents to adhere to the political bargains they strike because incumbents can use their familiarity with state institutions and can use their asymmetric hold on power during bargain implementation to violate terms by retaining more of the status quo than agreed. International actors can overcome these “reversion problems,” however, by using monitoring mechanisms (often focused on electoral campaigns) and incentives conditioned on compliance. Reversion problems, and enforcement by international actors as a solution, are common across issue areas—arising when domestic actors try to end civil conflict, open elections, and reduce repression—but the literatures in these issue areas have largely remained segregated. This review proposes advancing this research agenda by unifying them and (re)examining the conditions under which this solution works best.
21 新兴军事技术对国际政治有影响吗？
【题目】
Do Emerging Military Technologies Matter for International Politics?
【作者】
Michael C. Horowitz
【摘要】
我们生活在一个数字世界。这一事实对战争有重大影响。特别是网络和无人机这两种技术，在军事、情报行动以及学术研究中占有重要地位。此外，一条新的学术脉络正在研究人工智能的进步可能如何塑造战争的未来。虽然学者们对这些技术对国际政治的后果存在分歧，但他们倾向于同意这些技术的后果是由军事组织—无论是国家或非国家行为者---在相关军事场景中有效利用这些技术和追求政治目的的能力所调停的。研究较新的军事技术，与已经存在了几十年的技术相比实验证据较少，这也给研究带来了方法论的挑战。
We live in a digital world. This fact has significant consequences for warfare. Two technologies in particular, cyber and drones, feature in military and intelligence operations and in scholarship. In addition, a new vein of scholarship is examining how advances in artificial intelligence have the potential to shape the future of warfare. While scholars disagree about the consequences of these technologies for international politics, they tend to agree that their consequences are mediated by the ability of military organizations, whether state or nonstate actors, to use them effectively in relevant military scenarios and in the pursuit of political ends. Studying newer military technologies, with less empirical evidence than is available for technologies that have been around for decades, also generates methodological challenges for research.
22 对网络审查的韧性
【题目】
Resilience to Online Censorship
【作者】
Margaret E. Roberts
【摘要】
在多大程度上，互联网用户会适应网络审查制度？审查制度何时会影响信息消费，何时会造成反弹？根据日益增加的关于互联网用户对审查制度的反应的文献，我认为对审查制度的察觉、寻求信息的动机和规避审查制度的资源对人们适应审查制度的能力至关重要。我描述了专制政体如何调整它们的审查策略，以减少（互联网用户）对审查制度的察觉和对不受审查信息的需求。
To what extent are Internet users resilient to online censorship? When does censorship influence consumption of information and when does it create backlash? Drawing on a growing literature on Internet users’ reactions to censorship, I posit that awareness of censorship, incentives to seek out information, and resources to circumvent censorship are essential to resilience to censorship. I describe how authoritarian regimes have adapted their strategies of censorship to reduce both awareness of censorship and demand for uncensored information.
23 欧洲的身份政治与民粹主义
【题目】
Identity Politics and Populism in Europe
【作者】
Adul Noury
Gerald Roland
【摘要】
我们回顾了关于身份政治和民粹主义在欧洲崛起的文献。自2008年经济危机以来，民粹主义政党获得了大量选票。我们观察到在许多国家，甚至在欧洲议会中，政治的主要维度从左右分化转变为反对主流政党和（支持）民粹主义政党的新分化。我们研究这种转变与选民态度的变化以及各政党对这些变化的调整有何关系。民粹主义崛起的原因主要有两类：经济和文化。在回顾证据时，我们发现经济和文化因素之间存在复杂的互动关系。大批选民因经济大衰退和紧缩政策而产生经济焦虑，（进而）引发了他们对民粹主义政党的反（主流）文化思想的高度接受能力。
We review the literature on the rise of identity politics and populism in Europe. Populist parties have gained large vote shares since the Great Recession of 2008. We observe in many countries, and even in the European Parliament, a transformation of the main dimension of politics from the left–right cleavage to a new cleavage opposing the mainstream parties to populist parties. We examine how this transformation relates to changes in voter attitudes and the adjustment of political parties to these changes. Two main types of causes for the rise of populism have emerged: economic and cultural. In reviewing the evidence, we find a complex interaction between economic and cultural factors. Economic anxiety among large groups of voters related to the Great Recession and austerity policies triggers a heightened receptivity to the messages of cultural backlash from populist parties.
24 种族多样性与社会信任：叙事与元分析回顾
【题目】
Ethnic Diversity and Social Trust: A Narrative and Meta-Analytical Review
【作者】
Peter Thisted Dinesen
Merlin Schaeffer
Kim Mannemar Sønderskov
【摘要】
种族多样性是否会侵蚀社会信任？持续的移民和相应的日益增长的种族多样性引发了现代社会的这一重要问题，但如今不断发展的文献中却很少有明确的答案。本文通过对87项研究中的1,001项评估结果的叙述性回顾和元分析，综述有关种族多样性与社会信任之间关系的文献。本文明确了核心概念，强调了相关的争论，并检验了种族多样性与社会信任关系的文献中的核心主张。在元分析中有几项结果很突出。我们发现，在统计学上，所有研究中种族多样性与社会信任之间存在着显著的负向关系。在对邻居的信任方面以及当种族多样性被更多地在当地测量时，这种（负向）关系更强。协变量调节一般只对该关系略有改变。本文最后讨论了未来研究的路径。
Does ethnic diversity erode social trust? Continued immigration and corresponding
growing ethnic diversity have prompted this essential question for modern societies, but few clear answers have been reached in the sprawling literature. This article reviews the literature on the relationship between ethnic diversity and social trust through a narrative review and a meta-analysis of 1,001 estimates from 87 studies. The review clarifies the core concepts, highlights pertinent debates, and tests core claims from the literature on the relationship between ethnic diversity and social trust. Several results stand out from the meta-analysis. We find a statistically significant negative relationship between ethnic diversity and social trust across all studies. The relationship is stronger for trust in neighbors and when ethnic diversity is measured more locally. Covariate conditioning generally changes the relationship only slightly. The review concludes by discussing avenues for future research.
编 译：李若昱 段松涛
审 校：段松涛 李若昱
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编辑：张笑吟
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
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